Ruske snage “oslobodile su” ključno ukrajinsko uporište Dobropilje (na ruskom Dobropolje) u Donbasu, izvijestio je predsjednika Vladimira Putina načelnik Glavnog stožera Valerij Gerasimov.
Tijekom sastanka u petak, Gerasimov je rekao da su jurišne jedinice iz nekoliko brigada sudjelovale u operaciji i pretražuju podrume u potrazi za preostalim ukrajinskim vojnicima, prenosi Interfax.
Putin je pohvalio “koordinirane i visokoprofesionalne” akcije ruskih jurišnih jedinica, napominjući da su ukrajinske snage pretvorile Dobropilje u “robusnu tvrđavu”. Krajem rujna rusko Ministarstvo obrane objavilo je da su njegove snage opkolile Dobropilje.
Claims by the Russian MoD regarding the capture of Dobropillya are obviously false, but the situation is continuing to deteriorate for Ukraine. Something needs to be done very soon if Ukraine intends on holding the city over the winter.
The Russian command is intent on capturing Dobropillya before winter sets in, and is taking advantage of the recent fog to carry out large attacks using buggies and motorcycles. Areas surrounding the city are being literally flooded by Russian infantry, and new reinforcements are constantly arriving.
— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) October 17, 2026
During the last 4 months, Russia 🇷🇺 made a slow but steady progress in the direction of Dobropilla
Russian forces continue to advance and capture villages and small towns south of Dobropilla. Shevchenko and Bilytske fell, Russian forces are now attacking Dobropilla from the south and the east.
The battle for the city may start in the next few weeks/months and could last very long. Thanks to the New Donbas Line, part of the offensive to attack the city from the east and north is currently stopped. We should remember how much manpower Russia is using in this direction. We are talking about 3 armies, which are suffering important losses but are getting a big chunk of the manpower reserves right now, which is why multiple other directions are suffering from manpower issues.
Map : @Deepstate_UA
— Clément Molin (@clement_molin) October 13, 2026
Ukrajina osporava informaciju
Američki Institut za proučavanje rata (ISW) u procjeni objavljenoj jučer navodi da nije pronašao dokaze koji bi potvrdili rusko zauzimanje Dobropilje. Prema njegovoj procjeni, zabilježeni su tek ograničeni ruski prodori, dok je ukrajinska strana više puta odbacila tvrdnje da su ruske snage uspostavile kontrolu nad gradom. Putin je prije skoro godinu dana tvrdio da je osvojen Kupjansk, što ni danas nije slučaj.
Putin je na sastanku međunarodnog kluba Valdaj 1. listopada tvrdio da su ruske snage u rujnu zauzele 1.301 četvorni kilometar ukrajinskog teritorija. Prema kartografskim podacima koje je analizirao ISW, ruske snage u rujnu su pretrpjele neto teritorijalni gubitak od približno 80,81 km² . “Putinove tvrdnje o ruskim teritorijalnim dobicima na bojištu u rujnu 2026. toliko su udaljene od stvarnosti da nalikuju halucinacijama”, zaključuju. No, i ISW je znao biti pretjerano optimističan oko ukrajinskih izgleda u zadnje četiri godine.
❗️🇺🇦 Operation Vivaldi is even more successful than Kyiv officially reports: Ukrainian troops foiled Russia’s plan to encircle Donbas, — Euronews + maps from ISW
📍Ukrainian forces foiled Russia’s plan to seize the rest of the Ukrainian-controlled territory of Donetsk region this year.
📍Operation Vivaldi eliminated the northern part of Russian “tick” in the Lyman direction.
📍Ukrainian troops advanced along the lines Ridkodub – Nove – Novomykhailivka and Yarova – Drobysheve – Stavky.
📍The Russian salient, created to threaten Slovyansk from the northeast, actually collapsed, and Russian units were forced to go on the defensive.
📍During the first three stages of the operation in September, 176 sq. km of territory were liberated.
📍Ukrainian control over the Lyman area allowed for the preservation of key supply routes.
📍The failure of the northern flank strike was an operational setback for the Russian Federation – Moscow lost not only the territories near Lyman, but also a key part of the plan to capture the “fortress belt”.
📍Putin stated that Russia controls 89% of the Donetsk region, but the real level of Russian occupation of the Donetsk region is no more than 81%, analysts estimate.— MAKS 26 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) October 10, 2026
Putin claimed Russian frontline gains in September 2026 so far from reality as to resemble hallucinations. Putin claimed that Russian forces seized 1,301 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine in September 2026 alone — 2.5 times more than the claimed Russian gains in previous months. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 80.81 square kilometers in September 2026. Russian forces suffered a net loss of 175.18 square kilometers in September 2026 even when accounting for Russian infiltrations into areas over which Russian forces have not gained control. Putin’s absurd claims continue to present a fictional battlefield reality that supports the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort to falsely portray Russian advances as sweeping across the battlefield.
ISW cannot assess whether Putin knows that the figures he is presenting are false or if he is accepting fictional frontline data presented to him as the result of the culture of lying that is deeply ingrained in the Russian military command structure.
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) October 3, 2026
Ukrajinski uspjeh kod Limana
Ukrajinske snage ostvarile su značajne uspjehe sjeverno od Limana, poremetivši ruske planove za opkoljavanje ukrajinskog obrambenog pojasa u Donbasu. Ukrajinski 3. armijski korpus 14. listopada objavio je da je tijekom operacije vratio pod kontrolu 277 četvornih kilometara teritorija i 16 naselja u četiri faze (od svibnja i u operativnoj “tišini”), no Reuters te brojke nije mogao neovisno potvrditi. Zanimljivo je da je svojevremeno Gerasimov tvrdio i da je sam Liman zauzet.
Značajno je da su pogoršanje ruskog položaja kod Limana priznali i pojedini utjecajni ruski vojni blogeri. Analitički projekt CITeam zabilježio je da je Rybar u svojim kartama između 9. i 13. rujna prikazao pogoršanje ruskog položaja u području izbočenog položaja sjeverno od Limana. Kanal Dva Majora također je izvještavao o pogoršanju situacije i smanjivanju ruskog mostobrana, dok je kanal Voennij Osvedomitel (Vojni promatrač) prenosio izvješća o mogućem povlačenju ruskih snaga prema rijeci Žerebec.
Prodor iznad Limana je trebao biti gornji/sjeverni krak opkoljavanja utvrđenog pojasa Slavjansk-Kramatorsk, dok južni (zasad uspješniji za Rusiju) kreće kod Dobropilja.
Osvajanje grada Dobropilja je, dakle, nužan korak u ruskom napredovanju prema aglomeraciji Slavjansk-Kramatorsk, skupini gradova na sjeverozapadu Donjecke oblasti koji čini posljednje veliko utvrđeno uporište Ukrajine u regiji.
Vojnopolitička analiza Zorana Metera: Dok Rusija gori, Rusi pred osvajanjem važnog grada u Donbasu
